Interesting take on state of motorcycle industry

[MrGrumpy]

I would have thought that most of the drop in sports bike sales is due to changes in fashion.

Adventure bikes have become fashionable and sales are rising. Sports bikes are less fashionable and sales are declining

True, though there are other factors are at work - for one thing, bikers are getting older, and less able/willing to contort themselves into race bike riding positions. Also, Sportsbikes seem to have been developed more and more for racing rather than roads and thus, apart from being way OTT for roads, aren't even fun to ride unless you a truly talented rider/racer who can get the best of them.

[anonstarter]

I think the 'big bucks' future will be when manufacturers start to make (car licence friendly) narrow-track 3 wheelers like the Piaggio MP3 500 LT with a safety cage like the BMW C1. These would attract more non-motorbike licence holders out of their "safer" cars and allow them all the benefits of PTW. Less congestion, less queuing and easier parking.

[irev]

Correct. The single biggest issue that prevents migration to two/three wheels is the perceived safety factor, followed by weather protection.
Cost is not, and never has been, a barrier to entry. Only an asset to close.

And car makers are considering narrow track three wheelers, but on their own terms:

http://www.eliomotors.com/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;








What is going to happen is that the UK market will completely miss the train leaving the station, and the gap that could have been filled by maxis and scooters will instead be filled by microcars that still get stuck in traffic...

All because the industry cannot learn from its mistakes, act in a co-ordinated fashion, or stop focussing on racing as the only way to improve the breed. Sportsbikes haven't fallen out of fashion, they've fallen out of practicality, and all the gadgets and gizmos in the world can't save a 20 horsepower rider from a 200 horsepower bolide that will kill him.

And the aging motorcycle populace isn't helping, nor is the lack of `fresh meat` and new market development. Now we've got the temporary and stupid Chelsea Tractor market convincing them all that super-giant-trailies are the next big thing, when the focus should be on encouraging new adopters in the 250cc feeder class. Where are the scooter ads in the NON-bike press? Where are the TV campaigns away from the inevitable `Car driver please try not to a kill a biker today` patheticisms?

There's a vast opportunity going begging, but don't' expect anyone in the bike industry to recognise it. Most wear slip-on shoes because tying laces is beyond them.

[Bluebottle]

And car makers are considering narrow track three wheelers, but on their own terms...

I count 4 wheels on two of those pics

And 3 of the 4 vehicles are electric, so I'd say your pictures do indeed illustrate the future.

I suspect Elon Musk will move into this sector and decimate the existing players.

I don't see how you can say sports bikes have "fallen out of practicality"..." not fallen out fashion" they are as unpractical as they always were; fashions and attitudes change, practicality hasn't. I can't make sense of that.

I think there will certainly be a crossover group that will go for small 3-4 wheelers but I think it will be a new sector. Main stream bikers will still want the unencumbered freedom and image that goes with it, main stream car drivers will still want protection/practical or "status".

I don't care if the vehicle is made by a car maker or a bike maker. If the bike makers go to the wall, so be it.
Renault seem to be the one making the running at the moment.
But if Elon Musk gets his teeth into this, Tesla will wipe the floor with all the competition.

[anonstarter]

You're onto something there Mister Bluebottle! Patents have been crippling UK innovation for decades!

Elon Musk is to share Tesla's patents:

A WAR is being waged by the litigators of Silicon Valley. Their chosen weaponry: patent law.

The battle is most obvious among the tech giants. In 2011, Apple and Google spent more on patent lawsuits and purchases than they put towards research and development. And it is consumers who get stung. A report released by law firm WilmerHale this May found that patents are now responsible for as much as 30 per cent of the cost of a £240 smartphone.

It’s taken serial entrepreneur and billionaire Elon Musk to shake things up. Having already brought his disruptive brand of innovation to cars, energy, and space travel, last Thursday he announced that his company Tesla, an electric car manufacturer, is taking steps to tear up the rules on patents. It is a move that could reverse a trend towards competition by litigation.

Musk said in a blog post on his company’s website that the wall of patents in the lobby of Tesla’s Palo Alto headquarters had been removed. Tesla will “not initiate patents lawsuits against anyone who, in good faith, wants to use our technology”.

Those reading the news would be forgiven for thinking that investors would react badly. Tesla is apparently giving up one of its key assets: its intellectual property. But instead, shares were up the next day.

The standard argument for patents runs as follows: entrepreneurs won’t go through the lengthy and expensive process of research and development if their competitors can simply swoop in to duplicate their efforts, cost-free. Without some mechanism to defend intellectual property, investment will be much lower and, as a result, growth is capped. Most governments are convinced, and grant innovators temporary monopolies via patent rules. But what seems a necessary evil may not be supported by the evidence.

If patents were so positive for innovation, wouldn’t we see it somewhere in the data? Economists Michele Boldrin and David Levine summarise the case against patents neatly: “there is no empirical evidence that they serve to increase innovation”.

Further, Musk’s decision has a clear commercial rationale. For Tesla’s electric cars to flourish, he admits that he does not need to best the “small trickle” of electric cars produced by his competitors, but to compete against mainstream car manufacturers. What they have, and what Tesla doesn’t, is a network of fuel stations along almost every road in the US. By opening up his technology, Musk can boost the demand for electric charging stations, and in turn their supply. By tearing down the barriers to entry, Musk makes economies of scale possible.

Having your competitors use your platform also offers opportunities to outsource research and development. Staff at Nissan and BMW are understood to be interested, and the improvements they can offer could in turn be built into Tesla’s products.

As one BMW engineer recently told Morgan Stanley, Tesla’s presence alone has helped reinvigorate a spirit of automobile innovation that was beginning to run stale. But for all of this, Musk could still go further.

Tesla’s “good faith” disclaimer is a flimsy promise that will make investors nervous. Musk has been bold before. If he really wants to harness the benefits of competition, he needs to ditch Tesla’s patents altogether.

http://www.cityam.com/1403117595/elon-m ... altogether" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;





Exciting times!

[michaelphillips]

Exciting times indeed some tesla info here , good reading

Ten Tesla Facts You Might Not Know

upcoming electric SUV,

California Cuts Red Tape For Tesla Gigafactory

[Bluebottle]

Elon Musk and other EV experts have had secret meetings with the British government and the official line is not to disclose why - even if there are Free of Information Act applications.
Complete embargo on it and nobody involved is going to say anything about it.

For fun, lets look at Finland instead, the government there had some meetings. Soon after they changed legislation so that electric vehicles got free parking, free ferries and other incentives.
All the top selling cars there are now electric. As some of the incentives come to an end drivers are sticking with electrics as a better option EVs have taken over.

Just saying, funny what goes on over there in Finland isn't it.

Nice weather.